Carolina Concha-Arriagada

I am an Economics Ph.D. Candidate at Georgetown University and a 2022 NAEd/SPENCER Dissertation Fellow.

I work on topics that evaluate students' responses to college admissions processes and how candidates’ perception of risk shapes electoral outcomes. I use both theory and empirical methods in my research.

I am on the 2022/23 job market and available for interviews, including at the ASSA 2023 Annual Meeting.

You can find my CV here

Primary fields:
Applied Microeconomics, Economics of Education

Secondary fields:
Development Economics, Political Economy

Laurent Bouton, Garance Genicot, and Christopher Neilson



Should I Stay or Should I Go? Strategic Responses to Improve College Admission Chances (Job Market Paper)

Policies aimed at increasing the number of students from underrepresented groups enrolled in college are common worldwide. Many of these policies can result in strategic responses by high school students. Yet, little is known about the extent to which these responses undo the effect of the policy. This paper shows that centralized college admission policies that rank students within their high school lead to strategic relocation of students, which undoes part of the effects of the policy. Relying on a policy change in Chile, I use detailed administrative data and a simple theoretical model to show that high school students react to these sorts of college admission policies by switching schools, undermining the policy effects. I find that the number of low-income students accepted to the top colleges increases by less than 1 percent under the current. policy, but if students had not switched high schools, that increase would be 5 percent, a reduction of 90 percent in the policy effectiveness. In addition, switchers target high schools with lower average GPAs, and they significantly increase their probability of attending selective colleges. I argue that relocation is an important pre-college response, which needs to be considered when designing policies using schools as target characteristics, as it can completely undermine said policies.

Related Popular Writing: Development Impact Blog


It’s Always Sunny in Politics (with JJ Naddeo)

A desirable property of democratic elections is that they should not be influenced by forces that reveal no information about the candidate. However, the extant literature suggests that precipitation has a significant impact on electoral outcomes. This paper investigates an understudied dimension of weather—sunshine. Using novel daily weather measurements from satellites, linked to county ­level U.S. Presidential electoral returns from 1948-­2016, we document how sunshine affects the decision making of voters. We find that election­ day exposure to sunshine increases support for the Democratic party on average. Additionally, we show that— contrary to prior findings that do not control for sunshine—precipitation has no detectable impact on partisan support, but universally depresses turnout. To rationalize our results we propose a mechanism whereby sunshine modulates voter mood which causes a change in voter choice, while precipitation only impacts turnout through increasing the cost of voting. We then build a theoretical model, which features this mechanism, and generates additional tests that find support in the data. Our main result—that election day sunshine noticeably impacts voter choice—highlights the need to reduce the effect of election day shocks (e.g. by allowing early voting). Furthermore, our results regarding precipitation suggest that reducing costs to voting does not confer partisan benefits—a potentially policy relevant finding for the current vote by mail discussion.

Work in progress

Upward Mobility in Developing Countries (with Garance Genicot and Debraj Ray)

This article provides an overview of the literature on mobility in developing countries. Explicit distinctions are drawn between directional and non-directional measures, absolute and relative measures, and combinations thereof. We note that the scarcity of panel data has hindered the measurement of mobility for many countries. We pay particular attention to the recent development of panel-free mobility measures, which allows us to measure upward mobility in 147 countries. We use these measures to revisit some central themes in the literature.

College Admission Policies and Students’ High School Choice: Evidence from Chile

Increasing opportunities for students from historically disadvantaged populations and communities have been the focus of many different policies around the world. Yet, little is known about how these policy shape students' high school choices. In this paper, I examine whether a policy in Chile that mandated all institutions using the centralized system to incorporate a student's high school-specific criterion affected students' ninth-grade school choice. I exploit the adoption of the policy and the local school market structure to estimate the effects of the college admission criteria on the quality of the school students attend. Preliminary estimation indicates that students in local markets with high scope for gains are two percentage points less likely to attend a high-quality public school. To study the effects of different policy changes in the college admission process, I follow Otero et al. (2022) and estimate a joint school choice and outcomes model.

Heterogeneous Effects of Highly-Motivated Peers: Evidence from a College Admission Reform in Chile (with Jesus M. Villero)

We exploit a change in the college admission policy occurred in 2014 in Chile, a country with a centralized admission system, that increased the probability of relatively high achieving high school students moving from higher- to lower-quality schools (as measured by average standardized test scores) to study the effects of being exposed to highly motivated peers on academic outcomes. We use a strategy that compares 12th-grade students in classrooms that received more high achieving students with those from the same schools but who were exposed to fewer or no high achieving students. Using both basic and nonlinear-in-means specifications, we show evidence of heterogeneous effects depending on the ability of the incumbent students.


Instructor (Undergraduate Courses)

Intermediate Microeconomics, Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Summer 2021
Course evaluation
Principles of Microeconomics, Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Summer 2020
Course evaluation
Principles of Microeconomics, Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Summer 2019
Course evaluation

Teaching Assistant at Georgetown

Econometrics I (Undergraduate’s level), Spring 2020, Fall 2021, Spring 2021

Intermediate Microeconomics (Undergraduate’s level), Fall 2018 and Fall 2020

Teaching Assistant at ILADES

Economics of Social Policies (Master’s level), Spring 2015

Microeconomics II (Master’s level), Spring 2015

Econometrics I (Master’s level), Fall 2014

Macroeconomics I (Master’s level), Spring and Fall 2014


Garance Genicot, Georgetown University.

Laurent Bouton, Georgetown University.

Christopher Neilson, Yale University.